The American Truck Dealers (ATD) published its most recent quarterly report Wednesday. According to ATD data, new commercial truck sales totaled more than 381,000 units through the first three quarters of the year, a decline of 6.3% year over year.
ATD says heavy-duty truck sales were the primary driver of the decline.
Sales of heavy-duty trucks were just shy of 203,000 units at the end of the third quarter, a decline of 12.5% compared to the same period a year ago. Medium-duty truck sales were up slightly, totaling more than 178,000 units — an increase of 0.9% year over year.
ATD references the most recent order announcement from ACT Research remarking orders for new Class 8 trucks posted their first positive year-over-year gain in three months in September. ACT reports preliminary orders of Class 8 trucks totaled 37,100 units, an increase of 0.3% year over year and double the order volume of August 2024. The primary reason for the jump in orders from August to September was the OEMs opening their order books for the 2025 model year. Nonetheless, it is a positive sign for Class 8 truck sales next year, ATD reports. In the medium-duty sector, ACT estimates orders were approximately 19,100 units for Classes 5-7 last month.
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ATD also states pricing for used Class 8 trucks has declined significantly since peaking a few years ago during the microchip shortage. ACT Research estimates the average retail price for a used Class 8 truck in August 2024 was $58,358, a decline of 9.5% year over year. The average transaction price in August 2024 was up by 4.6% when compared with July 2024, the company adds.
ATD Chief Economist Patrick Manzi also notes since ATD's last Truck Beat, the Fed announced a cut of 50 basis points to the federal funds rate, which should lower interest rates across the economy. Manzi says ATD also expects two more cuts of 25 basis points each before the end of the year, but their impact will not immediately be noticeable.
"These cuts will take time to work through the economy," he says. "This lower-interest-rate environment should be a tailwind for truck sales next year as well as a tailwind for many companies served by America’s commercial trucking industry. For example, lower interest rates should positively impact both residential and nonresidential construction, which likely will increase demand for freight hauling.
"Looking out to the end of 2024, we expect total sales of commercial vehicles will decrease slightly. Our truck-sales forecast is for 247,000 medium-duty units and 234,000 heavy-duty units."
On a segment basis, Peterbilt and Western Star have gained the most market share (1.7% apiece) in the Class 8 space in 2024. Kenworth at 1.5% followed closely behind. International has struggled the most, losing 3.7% market share year to date.
In the medium-duty market, Freightliner market share is down 3.4% while market leader Ford gained 1.2% to increase its dominance.
