The Motor and Equipment Manufacturers Association (MEMA) kicked off its annual Pulse webinar schedule Tuesday with a busy presentation addressing some of trucking’s biggest issues.
MEMA Senior Manager of Research and Industry Analysis Joe Zaciek kicked off the session, offering industry projections for 2024 and 2025 based on a MEMA’s most recent member survey. Zaciek was then followed by Rebecca Schenker, vice president of regulatory compliance at TRC, who offered a high-level assessment of the many emission and fuel economy regulations that have been implemented by California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) that are not only driving dramatic change into the state’s truck population but also beginning to see adoption in other parts of the country.
Zaciek said MEMA had 55 members respond to its most recent member poll, higher than average, and said sentiment from the members on 2023 and the state of the industry today was mostly muted. He said responders indicated the challenges that plagued their businesses (access to raw materials, labor, inflation) throughout 2022 and 2023 have mostly rescinded, but so has demand. Delivery performances and inventories also have normalized, which is a good sign for manufacturers if the market swings wildly in either direction in 2024.
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On that note, Zaciek said MEMA respondents anticipate if the market shifts at all this year, it will likely be down slightly. He said fewer than 30% of responders expect a recession, and the MEMA survey population averaged a 3.6 (out of five) on its recession preparedness indicator. Zaciek said that means on the whole, suppliers feel they are at least somewhat prepared for a bad stretch if one arises.
Looking to 2025, Zaciek said the industry expects better results.
He said recent survey responders predicted a weighted average of 269,000 units for Class 8 truck production in 2024, with the Classes 5-7 market and trailer sectors expected to be even lower at 250,000 units and 245,000 units, respectively. Expectations for all three sectors are higher for 2025. Zaciek said MEMA’s responders offered weighted averages for 2025 production of Class 8 trucks at 285,000 units, with Classes 5-7 at 267,000 units and trailers at 267,000 units.
