Only 12 percent of new truck dealers and 8 percent of used truck dealers expect their truck sales totals to decrease in the first six months of 2021 compared to the same period last year, reported responders to Trucks, Parts, Service’s reimplemented reader survey on COVID-19 business conditions last month.
Since last spring’s sharp yet fortunately brief equipment market collapse, sales across the new and used truck and trailer markets have been consistently on the mend. In responding to our reintroduced COVID-19 business conditions reader survey in January, dealers across the channel confirmed the market’s resurgence and, despite concerns, now appear generally optimistic about the sales potential for the months ahead.
It is highly unlikely 2021 will be the dealer market’s best, but after the events of the last 11 months, that it even has the potential to be average is big win for the entire industry.
According to our readers, the strength of the market today is due to the speed in which it recovered in the second half of last year. According to our COVID-19 business conditions survey in June 2020, 79 percent of new truck dealers, 80 percent of used truck dealers and 100 percent of trailer dealers were anticipating their equipment sales to increase during the third quarter. For a market that at the time was staring at record-low order totals, predicting any sales growth in the months ahead wasn’t a huge leap to make. But assuming a correction doesn’t make it so.
Fortunately for the dealer channel its industry consensus was quickly confirmed. Truck orders rose exponentially from June to October and trailer orders generally followed. By the fourth quarter Class 8 orders were averaging more than 45,000 units a month, used truck pricing and volume were above 2019 levels and trailer sales were equally strong.
The second-half recovery led to ultimately mixed results for the dealer channel when evaluating the calendar year. One in four new truck dealers responding to last month’s TPS survey say their new truck business has actually risen since last March while another 25 percent say their sales have stayed the same. Used truck dealers have fared even better, with 29 percent seeing their sales rise and 33 percent maintaining their pre-pandemic levels.
Source: TPS January 2021 reader survey.Source: TPS January 2021 reader survey.
